000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC THU JAN 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...ASCAT-B HI-RES SCATTEROMETER 
PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD 
BEHIND A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE REGION EARLY FRI 
MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM 10-15 KT TO 30-40 KT 
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY...REACHING A PEAK OF 40-45 KT BETWEEN 
00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17-18 SHORTLY 
AFTER THE GALES COMMENCE...AND A PLUME OF 8-12 FT NE SWELL WILL 
SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM THE SOURCE REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N88W TO 04N95W... 
THEN ITCZ TO 02N104W TO 09N123W TO 05N133W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 88W AND 106W. LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH FROM 14N121W 
TO 07N127W IS FOUND FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 128W N OF 10N WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 18N128W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N121W 
TO 07N127W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC 
FEATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

INTENSE OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 966 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 50N160W. 
LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 18-21 SECONDS BEING 
GENERATED BY THIS GALE FORCE LOW. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES 
LEADING EDGE OF SWELL REACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA DURING PAST 2-3 HOURS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO NEAR 20 
FT W OF 135W TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR 
NW CORNER THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND 
FRI. SE WINDS TO 25 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
FRONT N OF 28N...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SWELLS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO 9-14 FT AS THEY SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS TO 20-30 
KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 89W-90W. WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING PEAK WINDS...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT N 
WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SAT. STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS... 
ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
MUNDELL