000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230326 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JAN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNINGS...THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES SINCE AN 1802 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AT 00 UTC AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT GALE WARNING FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY 06 UTC TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION SLACKENS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUNRISE THU WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS BY THEN TOO. THE MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY 06 UTC FRI... THEN RAPIDLY BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 12 UTC FRI AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF EASTERN MEXICO TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE A PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WIND EVENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 04N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N93W TO 08N116W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N123W TO 05N134W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 93W...WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 98W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF A LINE FROM 16N121W TO 13N127W BETWEEN THE NW SIDE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGING ALONG 110W AND SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE W ALONG 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA OVER VANCOUVER CANADA TO ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 32N129W TO THE SE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 105W ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 130W IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 16N119W TO 07N119W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NW AND THEN NW-N BY 48 HOURS AROUND THE RIDGING AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE W TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS NOW HAVING BREACHED 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW REACHING FROM 30N138W TO 24N140W BY SUNRISE FRI...THEN WILL STALL AND SLIP BACK TO THE W AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 24N139W BY THIS TIME FRI EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ONCE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MANAGES TO ENTER THE AREA...HOWEVER VERY LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 21 FT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF IT AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 105W WHILE OVERTAKING AND MERGING THE CURRENT SET OF NW SWELL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. E OF 105W AND GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 89W. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND RIDGE TO THE SE-S ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 20-30 KT WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT...AND WILL ALSO PROPAGATE TO THE SW TO 93W/94W WHILE MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. GULF OF PANAMA...THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MENTIONED IN THE PAPAGAYO SECTION ABOVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT N WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND YET AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY