000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JAN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNINGS...A 1802 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 34-40 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 16 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY 00 UTC TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION SLACKENS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUNRISE THU WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS BY THEN TOO. THE MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY 06 UTC FRI... THEN RAPIDLY BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 12 UTC FRI AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF EASTERN MEXICO TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE A PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WIND EVENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N86W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N86W TO 06N117W...THEN RESUMES FROM 06N120W TO 02N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF A LINE FROM 16N123W TO 13N128W BETWEEN THE NW SIDE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGING ALONG 111W AND SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE W ALONG 131W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS DIVING S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS ALONG 130W...AND ALSO EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 105W ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 131W IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N118W TO 07N118W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 09N WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NW AND THEN NW-N BY 48 HOURS AROUND THE RIDGING AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE W TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BREACHING 30N140W BY LATER THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW REACHING FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W BY LATE THU NIGHT...THEN WILL STALL AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 26N137W TO 22N140W BY THIS TIME FRI. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS ONCE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MANAGES TO ENTER THE AREA...HOWEVER VERY LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 21 FT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF IT AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 105W WHILE OVERTAKING AND MERGING THE CURRENT SET OF NW SWELL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. E OF 105W AND GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 89W. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND RIDGE TO THE SE-S ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 20-30 KT WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT...AND WILL ALSO PROPAGATE TO THE SW TO 94W WHILE MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. GULF OF PANAMA...THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING MENTIONED IN THE PAPAGAYO SECTION ABOVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT N WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND YET AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY