000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JAN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN OSCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED VERY STRONG N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS UP 45 KT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING... AND TO 20-25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN MEXICO WEAKENS. WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 20 KT OR LESS BY DAYBREAK ON THU. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 16-20 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY DAYBREAK THU. YET ANOTHER STRONG GALE OR POSSIBLE STORM GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESE BECOMES ESTBALISHED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N91W THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ AXIS TO 04N102W TO 07N120W TO 03N131W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W-87W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IS ROUGHLY ALONG 131W/132W N OF 08N WITH AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AT 16N130W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 118W FROM 06N TO 11N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 20N E OF THE TROUGH TO 126W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THESE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A VERY DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM (STORM CENTER) WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 MB IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 45N159W. LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 18-21 SEC ARE BEING GENERATED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD TIME TO TIME AGREEMENT THAT THESE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS WITH SEAS IN THE 9-15 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD TO NEAR 20 FT BY EARLY ON THU W OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 25N140W...AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY EARLY THU...THEN REACH A LINE FROM NEAR 32N138W TO 25N140W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR 32N137W TO 15N125W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 140W BY EARLY ON FRI. SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY ON FRI AT WHICH TIME SEAS IN NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 9-14 FT...EXCEPT FOR MUCH HIGHER SEAS OF 17 OR 18 FT NW OF LINE FROM ABOUT 32N133W TO 17N140W. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD TO AS FAR E AS 107W BY THU...AND SE TO A LINE FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 15N116W TO EQUATOR NEAR 120W BY LATE ON FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS TO MORE THAN 25 KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 89W. STRONGER HIGH PRESS IS FORECAST TO BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENING WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT N WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ AGUIRRE