000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC WED JAN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE STORM 
FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 
US NAVY / WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSEL ATLANTIS... 
CALL SIGN KAQP HAS BEEN PROVIDING HOURLY WIND REPORTS DURING ITS 
PASSAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. IT HAS EXPERIENCED GALE FORCE 
WINDS SINCE 21/22Z...WITH A PEAK WIND OF 45 KT NEAR 14.8N95.3W 
AT 21/23Z. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0324 UTC INDICATED 40-
45 KT WINDS...AND AGREED CLOSELY WITH THE 35 KT REPORT OF KAQP 
NEAR 14.0N94.9W. THE HIGH QUALITY OF WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 
RESEARCH VESSEL...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PEAK 30M WINDS TO 
50 KT AT 0600 UTC...AND MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z 
SUPPORT MINIMAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS NEXT 3-4 HOURS. EXPECT 
MAX WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT AT 12Z...THEN RAPIDLY 
DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS IN 
24 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 19-20 
FT THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU. 
ANOTHER STRONG GALE OR POSSIBLE STORM GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED 
TO BEGIN FRI MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N91W THEN CONTINUES 
AS ITCZ AXIS FROM TO 03N101W TO 07N120W TO 03N131W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

MASSIVE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 953 MB CENTERED NEAR 43N160W IN DOMINANT FEATURE IN CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM  
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 18-
24 HOURS. THE LEADING EDGE OF NW SWELL WILL HAVE 20 SEC PERIOD 
AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-20 FT IN NW CORNER TONIGHT AND 
THU. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FRONT WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE 
DISCONTINUITY...WILL REACH NW PORTION LATE TONIGHT AND QUICKLY 
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH THU. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL 
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT DECAYS TO 12-14 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 
AS A RESULT...NW SWELL GENERATED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL 
DOMINATE THE REGION W OF 110W...WHILE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM 
GAP WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL PREVAIL E OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...                                                    

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS 
TO MORE THAN 25 KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO 88W-89W. STRONGER 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY THROUGH 
EARLY THU...WITH RESULTANT SEAS REACHING 8-9 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT N 
WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT...AND PERSIST 
THROUGH FRI. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
MUNDELL