000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220314 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JAN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF THE NORTHERN OPENING OF THE CHIVELA PASS AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOW FUNNELING THROUGH THE PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN KAQP HAS BEEN REPORTING ELEVATED 40-45 KT WINDS...AND 30-40 KT WINDS ARE LIKELY AT 10M. 10M WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 45 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED BE MONITORED IN CASE MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KT BY 00 UTC THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF ON THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N84W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 07N120W TO 04N133W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W. ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W BETWEEN THE NW SIDE OF N TO S UPPER RIDGING ALONG 115W AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE W ALONG 135W. ...DISCUSSION... 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA OFFSHORE OF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS N OF THE ITCZ WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTING THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N120W TO 10N116W. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME ILL- DEFINED AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH IT. NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 06N102W TO 00N120W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO 8-10 FT BY 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER THEREAFTER WITH PRECEDING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BREACHING THE NW CORNER OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU. ANOTHER SET OF EVEN LARGER NW SWELL WILL PUSH IN AND MERGE WITH THE INITIAL SET WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 20 FT REACHING 30N140W BY THIS TIME THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO 88W-89W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING NIGHT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 30 KT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU...WITH RESULTANT SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 10 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...THIS BUILDING HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY HELP SUPPORT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 25 KT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AS RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PERSISTING THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY