000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212124 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JAN 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A 1616 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED INCREASING WINDS TO 20-30 KT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A SURGING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS UP TO 45 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED BE MONITORED IN CASE MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME TOMORROW...DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KT BY 00 UTC THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF ON THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 05N92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 08N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W. ALSO...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W BETWEEN THE NW SIDE OF N TO S UPPER RIDGING ALONG 115W AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE W ALONG 135W. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N127W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS N OF THE ITCZ WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTING THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N118W TO 16N120W. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH IT. NW SWELL OF 8-12 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 06N100W TO 00N120W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO 8-10 FT BY 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER THEREAFTER WITH PRECEDING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BREACHING THE NW CORNER OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU. ANOTHER SET OF EVEN LARGER NW SWELL WILL PUSH IN AND MERGE WITH THE INITIAL SET WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 20 FT REACHING 30N140W BY THIS TIME THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR PANAMA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO 88W-89W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING NIGHT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 30 KT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU...WITH RESULTANT SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 10 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...THIS BUILDING HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY HELP SUPPORT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 25 KT BY WED EVENING AS RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY THU. $$ LEWITSKY