000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC TUE JAN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE CURRENTLY 20 KT OR LESS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING 
ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 40-45 
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE 
EARLY WED. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE WED NIGHT AND RAPIDLY 
DIMINISH AFTERWARDS THROUGH THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD 
TO 20 FT TONIGHT AND SEND A PLUME OF 8-13 FT NE SWELL DOWNWIND 
FROM THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. YET ANOTHER STRONG GALE OR 
POSSIBLE STORM GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 03N92W...THEN ITCZ TO 
02N99W TO 06N111W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...          

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 
17N. TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY 
FROM 35N137W TO 27N145W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN 
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORTS MODERATE TRADE WINDS. LEADING 
EDGE OF A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL IS APPROACHING NW PORTION 
AND IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE NW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE W OF BAJA 
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...8 TO 11 FT SEAS PRIMARILY FROM NW SWELL 
GENERATED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL DOMINATE THE REGION W OF 
110W...WHILE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS...IN TEHUANTEPEC 
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN PAPAGAYO...WILL PREVAIL E OF 110W. AN 
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH PAST NW PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL 
SPREAD VERY HIGH 15-22 FT SEAS INTO NW PORTION DURING THIS TIME. 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT DECAYS 
TO 12-14 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR PANAMA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES 
OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT E OF 88W-89W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE 
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER 
TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED MORNING. 
 

$$
MUNDELL