000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC TUE JAN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TUE WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT TO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON...THEN 
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE...45 KT...BY TUE EVENING. WITH THE 
ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TUE INTO 
WED...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE. A PLUME OF NE SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N91W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 03N96W TO 
07N113W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
111W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS W BETWEEN 130W AND 
135W. 

...DISCUSSION...          

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
37N125W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N109W. WITH 
ONLY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ONLY ABLE 
TO SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TRADES. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NW 
SWELL TRAIN...WITH WAVE PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND 
RANGE...STRETCHES FROM NEAR PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO TO 00N107W. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL STRETCH FROM COSTA RICA TO 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TUE AND MOVE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 
ECUADOR BY WED. A SECOND SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
FAR NW WATERS...WITH SEAS TO 13 FT AND WAVE PERIODS IN THE 18-20 
SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH FROM THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 00N130W TUE MORNING AND 
FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO 00N125W WED MORNING. SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW SWELLS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA W OF 110W BY TUE AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE AREA 
W OF 105W BY WED AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE 
AREA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE 
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE WILL ONCE AGAIN 
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING. 
 

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AL