000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED. AS A RESULT...WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP 
WIND EVENT TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE 
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE...45 KT...BY TUE 
EVENING. WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE. A 
PLUME OF NE SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N91W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 05N102W TO 
07N123W THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATES STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W 
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...          

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 32N121W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N109W. 
WITH ONLY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ONLY ABLE 
TO SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TRADES. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NW 
SWELL TRAIN...WITH WAVE PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND 
RANGE...STRETCHES FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO 00N110W. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL STRETCH FROM COSTA RICA TO 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TUE AND MOVE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 
ECUADOR BY WED. A SECOND SET OF NW SWELL HAS ENTERED FAR NW 
WATERS...WITH SEAS TO 14 FT AND WAVE PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND 
RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH FROM THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 00N130W TUE MORNING AND 
FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO 00N125W WED MORNING. SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW SWELLS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA W OF 110W BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1022 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STRONG 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE 
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A NEW COLD FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BY WED MORNING. 
 

$$
AL