000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A LOW-RES 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWED 35 KT WINDS NEAR 15N 
95W. GFS MODEL 30M WINDS FORECAST INDICATES GALES TO 40 KT EARLY 
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 12Z TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO S MEXICO WILL INDUCE YET ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT 
IN THE REGION AFTER 18Z TUE. WINDS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE 
TUE AFTERNOON...REACHING 40-45 KT LATE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE AROUND 22/06Z. A PLUME OF LARGE N-NE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE AWAY THE SOURCE REGION...MIXING 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N92W...THEN ITCZ TO 
05N117W TO 08N122W TO 05N131W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
102W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...          

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 965 MB LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN N-CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 52N161W IS 
REACHING NW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
SWEEP SE ACROSS WESTERN WATERS TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY DECAYS FROM 
MAX OF 17-18 FT TO 12-13 FT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 

AN UNUSUALLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS 
RESULTING IN GENTLE-MODERATE TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD TUE...ALLOWING 
THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WITH TRADES BECOMING 10-15 KT.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS PULSING TO 25-30 KT DURING LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN DIMINISH 
TUE...FALLING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 21/06Z.

$$
MUNDELL