000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE 
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE LATEST OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 
19/1850 UTC SHOWED AT LEAST 30 TO 40 KNOT WIND OBSERVATIONS 
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N95.5W TO 15N95W TO 16N95W.  
THE FORECAST INCLUDES GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE-FORCE FROM THE 
TIME PERIOD AFTER 12 HOURS UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR 
TIME PERIOD...WHEN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. THE 
SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 FEET FROM 13N TO 
15N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A PLUME OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY AND 
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST... 
TO 04N82W 06N90W AND 05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 
05N102W TO 08N129W TO 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 
119W AND 122W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...          

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N131W 14N128W 
9N124W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 
14N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W...AND FROM 16N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N JUST 
TO THE WEST OF 140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ALSO 
IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N135W 27N138W BEYONE 25N140W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 35N126W THROUGH 32N122W TO 23N112W. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ROUGHLY WILL BE  
TO THE WEST OF 32N118W TO 10N120W TO 02N140W...AND THE SEA 
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET...AT THE START OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER ROUGHLY THE 
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 115W BY 24 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS 
WILL REACH 12 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHWESTERNMOST PART OF THE 
AREA. THE SWELL TRAIN WILL COVER ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT IS TO THE 
WEST OF 100W BY 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 
11 FEET.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NORTHEASTERLY 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS ARE 
BEING EXPERIENCED WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N86W TO 
09N90W TO 07N95W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH THE
19/1852 UTC SCATTEROMETER DATA.

GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER 
THAN 8 FEET ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W 
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 19/1714 UTC 
SHOW 20 KNOT WINDS IN THIS AREA.

$$
MT