000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC SUN JAN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1930 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

A GALE WARNING IS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE SURROUNDING 
AREA NEAR THE MEXICO COAST. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 
A SOLID AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
FORECAST STARTS WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS CONTINUING 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURR OR SO. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH A FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
REACH AS HIGH AS 13 OR 14 FEET FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. A 
PLUME OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD 
THE SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MIXING WITH 
LONGER PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 07N85W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 05N104W TO 09N128W TO 06N140W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 101W AND 107W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 129W FROM 06N TO 13N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 
18N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...          

THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL COVER MUCH 
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY TO THE 
WEST OF 30N120W TO 20N124W TO 10N120W TO 04N140W. THE SEA 
HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 TO 14 FEET BY 24 HOURS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERNMOST CORNER OF THE AREA.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NORTHEASTERLY 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS ARE 
BEING EXPERIENCED WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N86W TO 
09N90W TO 07N95W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO..

GULF OF PANAMA...
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ARE
FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ MT