000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JAN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...AND 0634 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 40 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 40 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD OF PEAK DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 14 FT THIS MORNING. A PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 07N85W TO TO 05N96W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N96W TO 08N125W TO 08N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 06N AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. A TROUGH LIES FROM 14N128W TO 05N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... THE LEADING EDGE OF A NW SWELL TRAIN...WITH WAVE PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...STRETCHES FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 00N130W. SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT LIE OVER FAR NW WATERS NEAR 30N140W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL PASS S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUERTO ANGEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON MON AND APPROACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. A SECOND BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 FT AND WAVE PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE. S TO SW WINDS WILL BECOME A FRESH BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT REACHES NW WATERS EARLY TUE MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 130W IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE A MODERATE BREEZE OR LESS. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING ALOFT IS FOUND FROM 14N128W TO 05N129W. CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PHASES WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATER TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE MID- LEVEL ENERGY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE N EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AND QUICKLY MERGING WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IN NW SWELL SWEEPING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 FT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AND MON. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL WEAKEN MON...ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO DROP DOWN TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY TUE MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...THE 0453 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT N WINDS S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 05N. SHIPS A8OH4 AND BATFR53 CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS...WITH THE FORMER REPORTING 8 FT SEAS NEAR 5.3N 79.9W AT 0900 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FORCING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER PANAMA SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. $$ SCHAUER