000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SUN JAN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
PREVAIL N OF 14N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT PASS AT 1540 
UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS TO 35-40 KT...BUT CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS MINIMAL GALES BETWEEN 30-35 KT AT PRESENT...WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE MON AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MIXING WITH 
LONGER PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N90W...THEN ITCZ TO 
04N101W TO 07N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...WITHIN 45 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 45 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
124W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...          

VERY WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 10N-15N. THE 
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REFLECTED BY TRADE WINDS THAT ARE 10-15 
KT OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WILL BE ONGOING LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
AN INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 
48N157W. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS SWEEPING ACROSS NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 14 FT NEAR 30N140W. SWELL WILL PROPAGATE 
SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. A SECOND 
SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH 
SEAS REACHING 14-15 FT WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 18-20 SECONDS.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS TO NEAR 30 
KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z EACH MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO AROUND 9-10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 05N-06N THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
BUILDING TO 7-8 FT S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.

$$ 
MUNDELL