000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC SUN JAN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 1200 UTC MON BEFORE 
FINALLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF 
NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N90W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 04N95W TO 
07N113W TO 08N122W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 07.5N127W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...          

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
43N129W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND TRADEWINDS ARE 20 
KT OR LESS. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT PREVAILING W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. WAVE PERIODS TO 20 SECONDS ARE ON 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MAIN 
CONCERN OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WILL BE THE NW SWELL. THE SWELL 
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS BY 
SUNRISE SUN...AND REACHING CABO CORRIENTES BY SUN EVENING. A 
SECOND SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN 
EVENING...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 14-15 FT AND WAVE PERIODS 
IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS TO NEAR 30 
KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z EACH MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 05N IN THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY WITH 
ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUN 
AFTERNOON.

$$ 
AL