000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC FRI JAN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT SLIDING S 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL USHER IN HIGHER PRESSURE 
N OF CHIVELA PASS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH WINDS 
EXPECTED TO REACH 40 KT AS PEAK DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY SAT 
MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT 
LEAST 1800 UTC SUN. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 16 FT SAT 
MORNING. AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE SW-W AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 04N87W TO 
03N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N95W TO 03N103W TO 
08N120W THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N127W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A TROUGH FROM 
13N120W TO 06N127W LIES WITHIN THE BREAK IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM E OF THIS TROUGH 
FROM 06N TO 12N.

...DISCUSSION...          

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 130W N OF 10N IS DISRUPTING THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TRADE WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO A MODERATE BREEZE OR LESS. A SURFACE TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING ALOFT IS FOUND FROM 13N120W TO 
06N127W. CONVECTION JUST E OF THE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE SECTION 
ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 
SOUTHERLY UPPER JET ON ITS EASTERN SIDE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE 
MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE 
HERE. 

A NEW BATCH OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY 
SAT...WITH 20 SECOND WAVE PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
SWELL PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 140W AND 
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SAT 
AFTERNOON AND PASSING SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS BY SUNRISE SUN. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT ARE 
EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z 
EACH MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 05N IN THE MORNING HOURS 
TODAY THROUGH SUN AS TIGHT RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD 
UP TO 8 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$ 
SCHAUER