000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC FRI JAN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND OSCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE 20-30 KT. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
GALE CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 00 UTC SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES 1025-1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING JUST NW OF THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THAT TIME RESULTING IN A VERY TIGHT 
AND PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL INDUCE 
THE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE THEN 
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12 UTC SUN. RESULTANT SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 16 FT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. AN IMPRESSIVE 
PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SW-W AWAY 
FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...MIXING WITH LONGER 
PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO 03N95W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N95W TO 09N118W THEN RESUMES FROM 
09N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND 
ALSO FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...          

1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N128W. A 
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 
110W...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO 
THE W OF 140W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT IN THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT JUST W OF THE AREA 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. 

LARGE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 17-19 
SECONDS IS IN THE PROCESS OF INVADING THE FAR NW PORTION. 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15 FT BY 24 HOURS 
WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 
30N130W TO 06N140W BY THEN...THEN WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY TO A 
MAXIMUM OF 13 FT WHILE CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE 
COVERING THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 10N130W TO 
05N140W BY 48 HOURS.

OTHER GAP WINDS...                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG 
PULSES OF GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z EACH 
MORNING EXPECTED...AND MAX SEAS TO 9-10 FT BETWEEN 09Z-15Z.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH SUN AS 
TIGHT RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM THE SAME HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER THE YUCATAN AREA. 
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE 
IMMEDIATE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$ 
LEWITSKY