000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC FRI JAN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 
0327 UTC INDICATED 30 KT WINDS NEAR 15N95W BUT MISSED PROBABLE 
AREA OF MAX WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST BETWEEN 15N-16N. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX WINDS SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE FORCE BUT STILL 
VERY STRONG AT 32-33 KT. A LARGE AREA OF N-NE SWELL IS BEING 
GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT AS WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON 
THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING TO AROUND 30-40 KT...WITH GALES 
PERSISTING THROUGH SUN MORNING...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 15-16 FT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO 03N92W... 
THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ AXIS TO 05N109W TO 08N120W TO 09N127W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF AREA N 
OF 22N. A MASSIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM COVERS LARGE PORTION OF NORTH 
CENTRAL PACIFIC NW OF THE AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
TRAILING INTO THE SUBTROPICS BETWEEN 145W-155W. THE FRONT WILL 
APPROACH NW PORTION...BUT WEAKEN AND FAIL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT 
WINDS AND WEATHER. HOWEVER LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS TODAY THROUGH 
SAT NIGHT...THEN DECAY AS WAVE ENERGY SPREADS AWAY FROM SOURCE. 
MAX SEAS REACH TO 14 FT EARLY SAT WITH 20 SEC WAVE PERIOD ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG PULSES OF GAP WIND FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXIMUM 
WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z EACH MORNING EXPECTED...AND 
MAX SEAS TO 9-10 FT BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH 
PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FORCING THE HIGH WIND GALE 
EVENT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE PULSING NE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BE  RESPONSIBLE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA. 

$$ 
MUNDELL