000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC FRI JAN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
HAS WEAKENED BY 3 MB AND SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 3 DEGREES OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CHIVELA 
PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO 
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS 
WELL...WITH SEAS BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 13 FT AS OF 0000 UTC. 
A VERY LARGE AREA OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL IS BEING GENERATED 
BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT AS WELL AS FROM THE NE WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL PASS NW PORTIONS 
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND CHAIN AS MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL 
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING 
THE EQUATOR AND AS FAR W AS 112W FRI NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN 
TO 30 TO 40 KT FRI EVENING IN WHAT WILL BE THE FIFTEENTH GALE 
FORCE OR STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT THIS SEASON. THIS IS THE MOST 
ACTIVE GAP WIND SEASON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SINCE THE 2006-
07 SEASON. THIS GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT EVENING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 04N90W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N90W TO 03N100W TO 08N115W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS W 
OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAKENED BY SYSTEMS 
ESCAPING THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SAT EVENING. TRADE 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MAINLY A MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IN 
DETERIORATING NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES IS PERSISTING JUST N OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 133W...BUT THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT BY SUNRISE FRI. A NEW BATCH OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
ENTER THE NW PORTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SEAS AS HIGH AS 
14 FT BY EARLY SAT...WITH 20 SECOND WAVE PERIODS ON THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE SWELL PROPAGATING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR W OF 130W BY 
SAT EVENING. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...1021 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH MAXIMUM 
WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING 
AS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES SE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA IN THE MORNING HOURS FRI AND SAT. THE POTENT COLD AIR 
MASS THAT IS FORCING THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND THE PULSING STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IS THE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA AS WELL. 

$$ 
SCHAUER