000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC THU JAN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...THE 1620 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED 
WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SINCE THAT 
TIME...WINDS SHOULD HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN THE GULF... 
WITH A MINIMAL GALE BELIEVED TO BE ON GOING BUT FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS 
WELL...WITH SEAS BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 16 FT AS OF 1800 UTC. 
A VERY LARGE AREA OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL IS BEING GENERATED 
BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 
BEYOND 800 NM OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH NW 
PORTIONS OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND CHAIN AS MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHWEST SWELL BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 
30 TO 40 KT FRI EVENING IN WHAT WILL BE THE FIFTEENTH GALE FORCE 
OR STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT THIS SEASON. THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE 
GAP WIND SEASON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SINCE THE 2006-07 
SEASON. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 04N85W TO 
03N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 03N100W TO 
08N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAKENED BY SYSTEMS 
ESCAPING THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SAT AFTERNOON. TRADE 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS 
A RESULT. A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IN DETERIORATING NW SWELL 
AND NE WIND WAVES IS PERSISTING JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
130W...BUT THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY 
SUNRISE FRI. A NEW BATCH OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE 
NW PORTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT BY 
EARLY SAT...WITH 20 SECOND WAVE PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE SWELL PROPAGATING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 140W BY SAT 
AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...1024 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED EARLY 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES SE 
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA IN THE MORNING HOURS FRI AND SAT. THE POTENT COLD AIR 
MASS THAT IS FORCING THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND THE PULSING STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IS THE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA AS WELL. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PERIOD N TO NE 
SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH NE TO E WIND SWELL FROM 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE 
WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W TONIGHT. 

$$ 
SCHAUER