000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JAN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM OVER 350 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 0544 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION OSCAT PASS CAPTURED 40 TO 45 KT WINDS WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N97W. SINCE THAT TIME THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS MODEL...INITIALIZED AT 06 UTC SHOWED A DECREASE IN THE WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A GALE WARNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS HAS BUILT SEAS TO 20 FT ABOUT 180 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 TO 40 KT SAT EVENING IN WHAT WILL BE THE FIFTEENTH GALE FORCE OR STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT THIS SEASON. THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE GAP WIND SEASON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SINCE THE 2006-07 SEASON. A VERY LARGE AREA OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL IS BEING GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEYOND 800 NM OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH NW PORTIONS OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND CHAIN AS MODERATE NORTH- NORTHWEST SWELL BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 04N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 07N110W TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND RETREATED TO THE N. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 14N W OF 115W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI. A PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI AND SPREAD TO AN AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 10N140W WITH SEAS 8 TO 14 FT...THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 135W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS WEAKENING WITH FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N DECREASING TO ABOUT 20 KT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PERIOD N TO NE SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH NE TO E WIND SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W LATER TODAY. $$ COBB