000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...          
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS...ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM 
OVER 300 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 
MOVED INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE 
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS. THIS 
HAS FURTHER INCREASED WINDS EXITING THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
BLASTING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO STORM FORCE 
(OR 50 KT). SEAS HAVE BUILT AS HIGH AS 24 FT ABOUT 150 NM 
DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 
STORM FORCE BY LATE THU MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO 
FLUCTUATE AT OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THERE THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING. A VERY LARGE AREA OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL IS BEING 
GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND 
SOUTHWEST BEYOND 800 NM OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT...AND 
REACH NW PORTIONS OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND CHAIN AS MODERATE 
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N74W TO 04N78W TO 
07N86W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO  
08N121W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W TO 134W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH HAS 
WEAKENED. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH 
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 
105W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. A PULSE OF  
LARGE NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS THU. 

GAP WINDS... 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF 
FONSECA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 30 
KT EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A GULF 
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PERIOD N TO NE 
SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH NE TO E WIND SWELL FROM 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE 
WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

$$ 
STRIPLING