000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS 
FURTHER INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND 
THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED 
TO STORM FORCE (OR 50 KT). SEAS OF WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 24 FT 
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY LATE THU 
MORNING...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 07N88W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 03N97W TO 
07N118W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W TO 110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
115W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION... 

TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 
NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 110W. 
THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF NW 
SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 
FRI AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS THU. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF 
FONSECA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT 
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PERIOD N TO NE 
SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH NE TO E WIND SWELL FROM 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE 
WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

$$ 
AL