000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY 
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE 
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND INCREASE WINDS TO 
STORM FORCE (OR 50 KT) ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 
WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 20-24 FT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW STORM FORCE BY LATE THU MORNING...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N88W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 02.5N100W TO 
07N118W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W TO 110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 114W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION... 

TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 
NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 110W. 
THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF NW 
SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 
FRI AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
EARLY THU. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF 
FONSECA BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT 
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PERIOD N TO NE 
SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH NE TO E WIND SWELL FROM 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE 
WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

$$ 
AL