000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS TO AROUND 30-40 KT CURRENTLY OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. 
THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS AND THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS 
OF 9 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 20-24 FT 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY LATE THU 
MORNING WITH GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N80W TO 5N88W. ITCZ FROM 5N88W TO 4N100W TO 
7N110W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 104W-108W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 114W-117W. 

...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE EXTREME W 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 140W. OTHERWISE AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
NEAR 10N113W T0 32N130W. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 
THE RIDGE AXIS. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE W COASTS 
OF COLOMBIA AND EQUADOR STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS E OF 102W. 

NW SWELL 8-9 FT IS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 130W AND 
FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI.

ELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT ON FRI

$$ 
DGS