000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THEN CONTINUING IN A NARROW 
PLUME SOUTHWESTWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS TO AROUND CURRENTLY 
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N. A SECOND 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY 
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...WITH A 1034 MB HIGH SHIFTING S ACROSS 
TEXAS AND ALONG GULF COASTAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THIS WILL 
FURTHER INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND  
INCREASE WINDS TO STORM FORCE (OR 50 KT) ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING. SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 
20-24 FT AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 240-270 NM FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE 
BY LATE THU MORNING...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     
WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 03.5N79W TO 05N84W 
WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N94W TO 06N104W TO 
06.5N122W TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ALONG MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF 
02N79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1037 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 46N126W EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO NEAR 
18N131W...AND SE TO NEAR 18N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
FROM 08.5N TO 14.5N W OF 130W. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IS 
PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ TO MAINTAIN THE AREA 
OF CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE TRADES TO 20 KT 
OR LESS. NW SWELL COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 111W. 
THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT OCCURRING S OF 28N. HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU 
NIGHT. 
 
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF 
FONSECA BEGINNING TODAY...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT 
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PERIOD N TO NE 
SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH NE TO E WIND SWELL FROM 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE 
WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

$$ 
STRIPLING