000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY 
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. 
THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO STORM FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 23 FT WITHIN 180 NM 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N84W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N130W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 46N126W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 123W. THE 
STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IS PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INTO THE 
ITCZ TO MAINTAIN THE AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SECTION 
ABOVE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE TRADES TO 20 KT OR LESS. NW SWELL 
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 111W. THE SWELLS WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY 
THU AFTERNOON. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL 
LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. 
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF 
FONSECA BY LATE WED. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE WINDS.

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS 
WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHORT PERIOD N TO NE FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH E SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 
8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

$$ 
AL