000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS REACHED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A 1026 MB HIGH PRES 
BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO IS 
HELPING FUNNEL COOL DENSE AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. A 
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO STORM FORCE 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 23 FT 
WITHIN 180 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED 
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N84W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 06N106W TO 
07N129W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 44N129W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 120W. THE 
STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IS PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INTO THE 
ITCZ TO MAINTAIN THE AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SECTION 
ABOVE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE TRADES TO 20 KT OR LESS. NW SWELL 
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 112W. THE SWELLS WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY 
THU AFTERNOON. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL 
LOOSEN THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. 
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF 
FONSECA BY LATE WED. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE WINDS.

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS 
WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHORT PERIOD N TO NE FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH E SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 
8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

$$ 
AL