000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS MORNING. 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER NE 
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE INTO 
THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND COLDER 
REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TOMORROW...INCREASING WINDS TO STORM FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 23 FT WITHIN 180 NM 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RESPITE WILL MINIMAL AND BRIEF HOWEVER 
AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE BRINGING GALES 
AGAIN TO TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE FRI. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

THE MONSOON TROUGH MEANDERS FROM 04N77W TO 06N83W TO 
04N90W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 
07N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N AMERICA 
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL 
SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
GULF OF FONSECA BY LATE WED. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED 
IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE 
IMPACTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE 
THU. 

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS 
WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHORT PERIOD N TO NE FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH E SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 
8 FT WILL PROPAGATE OVER MOST OF THE WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 110W BY LATE THU. 

WEST OF 110W..A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 
120W...EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 28N138W. THIS IS PROVIDING SUPPORT 
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A LARGE 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED 
WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE RIDGE. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TROUGHING TO 
THE WEST IS INTERACTING WITH LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE 
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 
 
AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 07 UTC ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION 
INDICATED SEAS ARE STILL RANGING FROM 8 TO AS HIGH AS 13 FT IN 
MAINLY NW SWELL...BUT ALSO MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL S 
OF 20N DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NE OF HAWAII IS PUSHING 
INTO THE UPPER RIDGE...AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO 
THE NORTH OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS 
CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM N OF KAUAI IS MOVING 
EASTWARD...CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AGAINST THE HIGH PRES 
TO THE NE. THIS IN TURN IS MAINTAINING FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER 
MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 135W. SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE 
IMPULSES WILL MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE 
WEST AS IT SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD AND BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY 
TILTED. THIS WILL IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE  
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO 
DIMINISH. WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE 
REGION W OF 110W THROUGH LATE WED AS NW SWELL DECAYS AND TRADE 
WIND FLOW DIMINISHES. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW 
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL MOVING TO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN