000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141024 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO BLAST ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING AND FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT HAVE BEGIN TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 1034 MB HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND DOWN THE MEXICAN EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FORCE WINDS TO STORM FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY EVENING. A PLUME OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S AND SW TO NEAR 12N98.5W BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRIVING SEAS AS HIGH AS 23 FT DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE FORCING GALES THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH MEANDERS FROM 08N74W TO 03N79W TO 09.5N84W TO 08N88W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N100W TO 07N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION FROM 100W TO 150W THIS MORNING. A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ALONG 145W IS DAMMING UP AGAINST A PERSISTENT TROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 118W AND 134W... PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF 14N IS HELPING TO VENTILATE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE. ELEVATED CONVECTION PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA OF MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE S OF 17N AND W OF 130W. E OF 100W...AN ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS EXTENDING A RIDGE N- NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW N ATLC. STRONG ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION E OF 100W HERE IS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A DIVERGENT ASYMPTOTE TO THE S AND SW OF THE TROUGH AND NOT YIELDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION. AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 44N128W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 16N132W AND SE TO NEAR 26N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT NE TO E TRADES GENERALLY S OF 20N AND W OF 120W...WITH A FEW VERY SMALL POCKETS OF 20-25 KT NEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED JUST TO THE W OF THE AREA...N OF 26N AS INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY S OF 20N. N TO NW SWELL PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE DROPPED FROM 10-15 FT ON MONDAY TO 8-12 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM 130W TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS THERE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN HAS BEGUN TO FRESHEN NW WINDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WHEN WINDS COULD REACH 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH...WITH HIGHEST SEAS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WED THROUGH THU SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WED EVENING AND 10-15 KT BY EARLY THU. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE STILL SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...RECENT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND ONLY PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ STRIPLING