000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140326 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JAN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BEGIN TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (35-40 KT) BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN IN EFFECT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PEAK WED EVENING AND WED NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 40-45 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 21-23 FT. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. THIS LONG LASTING GAP WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THREE COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FIRST FRONT IS ALREADY CROSSING THE GULF REGION. A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW BY MID WEEK AND YET A THIRD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI AND PASS SE OF THE GULF SAT. A VERY LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL SPREAD SW WITH THIS EVENT... RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER AS FAR SW THEN W AS 10N105W BY WED NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N87W TO 05N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N82W TO 07N110W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION FROM 100W TO 150W THIS EVENING. A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ALONG 145W IS PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ITS E AND SE...AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. E OF 100W...AN ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS EXTENDING A RIDGE N-NE ACROSS SE MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW N ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE ANTICYCLONE AS EVIDENCE IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ E OF 100W. AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1037 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 43N127W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. NE TO E WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 120W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE WATERS TONIGHT. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEAS OF 12-13 FT ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER NE. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WHEN WINDS COULD REACH 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WED THROUGH THU SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WED EVENING AND 10-15 KT BY EARLY THU. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE STILL SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...RECENT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND ONLY PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ GR