000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NE MEXICO 
AND SOUTH TEXAS COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DELIVER GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A STRONGER REINFORCING 
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BY MID WEEK...BRINGING LIKELY STORM CONDITIONS 
TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 22 FT BY 
LATE WED. LOOKING AHEAD...WIND WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY FRI.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N87W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 07N110W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...  
                                      
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
FORECAST REGION FROM 100W TO 150W THIS MORNING. A SHARP DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ALONG 149W IS PRODUCING A BROAD 
ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ITS E AND SE...AND ACTING TO ENHANCE 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. E OF 
100W...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
EXTENDS A RIDGE N-NE ACROSS SE MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
NW CARIBBEAN...AND INTO THE SW N ATLC.  
 
AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB IS CENTERED 
NEAR 42N129W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS 
TO NEAR 20N110W. NE TO E WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS 
NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 120W 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS 
NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE 
BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE WATERS 
TONIGHT. AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED ALREADY SEAS OF 12-13 FT 
ACROSS THE NE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS 
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER NE. 

E OF 100W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL...WITH A WEAK 
MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE MEANDERING ACROSS FAR NE 
PORTIONS. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE TROPICS E 
OF 100W IS LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW 
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N THIS EVENING  AND  
SPREAD S-SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT 
IN LONG NW-SE FETCH MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS  
COULD REACH NEAR 30 KT THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF TUE 
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WED THROUGH THU 
SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE 
NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...RECENT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THESE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT BY THIS 
EVENING...AND PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SPILLS THROUGH THE GULF. 

$$
GR