000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                    GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHING THE FRONT OVER NE MEXICO 
AND SOUTH TEXAS COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DELIVER GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A STRONGER REINFORCING 
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BY MID WEEK...BRINGING LIKELY STORM CONDITIONS 
TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 22 FT BY 
LATE WED. LOOKING AHEAD...WIND WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY FRI.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 07N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 06N90W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
ITCZ W OF 1257W.

...DISCUSSION...  
                                      
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
FORECAST REGION FROM 100W TO 150W THIS MORNING. A SHARP DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ALONG 149W IS PRODUCING A BROAD 
ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ITS E AND SE...AND ACTING TO ENHANCE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. E OF 
100W...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
EXTENDS A RIDGE N-NE ACROSS SE MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
NW CARIBBEAN...AND INTO THE SW N ATLC.  
 
AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA 
FROM THE N AND NW THIS MORNING. A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 41N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 
20N108W. NE TO E WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS NW 
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 
128W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE BUILDING 
SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE WATERS TONIGHT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER NE. 

E OF 100W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL...WITH A WEAK 
MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE MEANDERING ACROSS FAR NE 
PORTIONS. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 100W 
IS LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW 
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N THIS MORNING AND  
SPREAD S-SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY THIS EVENING. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-10 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. 
WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING COULD REACH NEAR 30 KT 
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX WED THROUGH THU SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE 
NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...RECENT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THESE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO TO AROUND 15 KT BY 
THIS EVENING...AND PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SPILLS THROUGH THE GULF. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN/STRIPLING