000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131018
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW TEXAS EARLY 
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF 
TONIGHT...AND INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY TUE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S 
THROUGH THE GULF TUE EVENING THROUGH WED AND REINFORCE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
ENHANCE GALES BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...POSSIBLY 
REACHING 45-50 KT THERE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS OF 10 TO 
18 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 18-22 FT 
WED NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS. A 
VERY LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL SPREAD SW WITH THIS 
EVENT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER AS FAR SW THEN W AS 
10N105W BY WED NIGHT. THIS GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 
LATE THU BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT INTO 
FRI. MARINE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 10N75W TO 03.5N80W TO 
10N85W TO 08N88W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM NEAR 06.5N94W TO 07.5N112W TO 06N122W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 
NM N OF ITCZ W OF 127W.
...DISCUSSION...  
                                      
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
FORECAST REGION FROM 100W TO 150W THIS MORNING. A SHARP DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ALONG 149W IS PRODUCING A BROAD 
ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ITS E AND SE...AND ACTING TO ENHANCE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. E OF 
100W...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
EXTENDS A RIDGE N-NE ACROSS SE MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
NW CARIBBEAN...AND INTO THE SW N ATLC.  
 
AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA 
FROM THE N AND NW THIS MORNING. A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 41N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 
20N108W. NE TO E WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS NW 
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 
128W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE BUILDING 
SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE WATERS TONIGHT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER NE. 

E OF 100W...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL...WITH A WEAK 
MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE MEANDERING ACROSS FAR NE 
PORTIONS. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 100W 
IS LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW 
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N THIS MORNING AND  
SPREAD S-SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY THIS EVENING. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-10 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. 
WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING COULD REACH NEAR 30 KT 
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX WED THROUGH THU SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE 
NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...RECENT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THESE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO TO AROUND 15 KT BY 
THIS EVENING...AND PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SPILLS THROUGH THE GULF. 

$$
STRIPLING