000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO MON IS EXCEPTED TO INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY TUE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL 
PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT... 
WINDS COULD APPROACH 45-50 KT THERE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 
SEAS OF 10 TO 18 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 
TO 18-22 FT WED NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE NEAR STORM FORCE 
WINDS. A VERY LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL SPREAD SW WITH THIS 
EVENT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER AS FAR SW THEN W AS 
10N105W BY WED NIGHT. THIS GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 
LATE THU BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT INTO 
FRI. MARINE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N85W. ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 04N85W TO 07N105W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
  
...DISCUSSION...                                        
ALOFT...W OF 100W A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
FORECAST REGION. E OF 100W...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST E OF 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ALONG 85W COVERING THE 
ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS 
SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.
 
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES OF 1034 MB LOCATED NEAR 39N137W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. WINDS 
HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY N OF 08N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWED A COUPLE OF AREAS WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS...FIRST N OF 24N W OF 120W AND SECOND FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 
120W. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY 
WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO 
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE 
WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS WILL 
BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON AFTERNOON.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS N OF 29N BY EARLY MON MORNING...WITH THESE 
CONDITIONS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON EVENING. 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
8-9 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE 
NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING. 

$$
GR