000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122146 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                               
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE SURGE OF 20-30 KT 
OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING CONFIRMED BY A SCATTEROMETER PASS  
AND A SHIP THAT REPORTED 9 FT SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
WATERS. AT 1800 UTC...A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR 14N95W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO MON IS EXCEPTED TO INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY TUE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH LATE 
THU. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF TUE 
NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT...WINDS COULD APPROACH 50 KT 
THERE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS OF 10 TO 18 FT DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 18-22 FT WED NIGHT IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS. A VERY LARGE 
PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL SPREAD SW WITH THIS EVENT...RAISING SEAS 
TO 8 FT AND GREATER AS FAR SW AND W AS 10N110W BY WED NIGHT. 
THIS GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY ON THU BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GUIDANCE IS 
HINTING AT ANOTHER MINIMAL GALE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.       
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 05N83W. 
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N83W TO 05N96W TO 07N105W TO 06N125W 
TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  
  
...DISCUSSION...                                        
ALOFT...W OF 100W A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
FORECAST REGION. E OF 100W...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST E OF 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ALONG 85W COVERING THE 
ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
 
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR 37N136W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N TO THE COASTS OF 
JALISCO AND NAYARIT. NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES ARE ENHANCED SW OF THE 
RIDGE FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 125W AND FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 130W 
BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS W OF 125W TONIGHT. AS 
THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE 
BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE WATERS 
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS WILL BEGIN TO 
RELAX ON MON AFTERNOON.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS N OF 29N BY EARLY MON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS 
SPREADING SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON EVENING. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT 
IN LONG NW-SE FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE 
NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$
GR