000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121009
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JAN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS WEAK AND EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 04N80W TO 
10N84W TO 08N88W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 
04N90W AND EXTENDS TO 07N99W TO 05.5N113W TO 07N127W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                              
ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A 
BROAD BASE NEAR 16N113W. THIS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN 
AND HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT NNE THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO 
TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE ACROSS 
CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWS 
SCATTERED STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES FROM 21N TO 23.5N FROM THE COAST AT 
GUADALAJARA TO 102W. TO THE S AND SW OF THIS CYCLONE BROAD 
TROFFING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...S OF 16N AND 
BETWEEN 106W AND 128W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS INTERACTING FAVORABLY 
WITH ITCZ CONVECTION. UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS BOTH E AND W OF 
THIS BROAD TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AND MOVING SE INTO THE N HALF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH TROUGH 
TRAILING SW TO BEYOND 33N140W...WHERE IT IS STALLING AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS UPPER RIDGING W OF 128W. 

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING TRANSPORTED BY 
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
NEAR 30N140W WHERE IT HAS STALLED. N OF THE FRONT...A 1034 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N144W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E 
THEN NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...AND ACT 
TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY TO THE S AND ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS ITS SHIFTS NE. CURRENTLY...FRESH NE 
TO E TRADES OCCURRING SE OF THE HIGH WHERE LOCATED W OF LINE 
FROM 07.5N140W TO 08N127W TO 27N140W...WHERE SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 
FT IN NW SWELL. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP E 
ACROSS THE WATERS ACROSS THE N BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 
JUST DIP INTO THE NE CORNER TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS 
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NLY 
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO 
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NE 
WATERS BY SUN NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCED WINDS 
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON AFTERNOON.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS N OF 29N BY EARLY MON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS 
SPREADING SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON EVENING. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT 
IN LONG NW-SE FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU.
    
GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF NLY GAP WIND EVENT HAS COMMENCED 
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS 20-30 KT N OF 14.5N IN THIS AREA...AND  
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FADE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON 
IS EXCEPTED TO INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TUE 
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH LATE THU. A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS A 
RESULT...WINDS COULD APPROACH 50 KT THERE WED AFTERNOON AND 
NIGHT. SEAS OF 10 TO 18 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF ARE FORECAST 
TO BUILD TO 18-22 FT WED NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG 
NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS. A VERY LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL 
SPREAD SW WITH THIS EVENT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER AS 
FAR SW AS 06.5N107W BY THU EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE 
NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THU 
NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING