000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JAN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N85W TO 06N93W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 07N100W TO 05N115W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE NEAR 17N113W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 18N E OF 125W. A UPPER TROUGH IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS MOVING SE. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH AFFECTING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN SE AND S ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS THERE. A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA E OF 100W...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 36N146W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 38N135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES ARE ENHANCED SW OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 130W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND JUST DIP INTO THE NE CORNER TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS FIRST ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS PARTICULARLY FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 128W...THEN ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AND BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT IN NW SWELL BY SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N BY EARLY MON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON IS EXCEPTED TO INDUCE NORTHERLY GALE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH LATE THU. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT...WINDS COULD APPROACH 50 KT THERE WED EVENING AND NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 15-18 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS MAINLY WED NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. $$ GR