000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112151 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO A 1009MB LOW PRES NEAR 05N79W TO 06N85W TO 07N91W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE NEAR 15N113W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 18N E OF 125W. A UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS MOVING SE. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH AFFECTING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN SE ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS THERE. A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA E OF 100W... INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 32N131W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N115W. NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES ARE ENHANCED SW OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 125W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND JUST DIP INTO THE NE CORNER TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 09N W OF 128W BY SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...A HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO BE NEAR 38N138W. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 24N W OF 122W BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON AFTERNOON. THE 1716 UTC OSCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N BY LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE MON. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG NW-SE FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING 10- 15 KT AGAIN BY EARLY THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON IS EXCEPTED TO INDUCE NORTHERLY GALE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH LATE THU. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT...WINDS COULD APPROACH 50 KT THERE WED EVENING AND NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MAINTAINING LATE NIGHT NE-E SURGES OF 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. $$ GR