000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT JAN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N86W TO 07N90W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 
05N110W TO 07N135W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 127W 
AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                            
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST 
WATERS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS 
LOCATED BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA GENERATING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. FARTHER WEST...A RIDGE PREVAILS WITH AXIS 
ALONG 131W/132W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 140W. DRY 
AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 
18N E OF 130W. 

THE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 33N131W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS 
IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. THE FIRST AREA IS FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 
130W...AND THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 
130W. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE 
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOUR AS A VERY 
STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC REGION. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. 
STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN 
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS... PARTICULARLY N 
OF 09N W OF 128W BY SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...A HIGH PRES OF 
1035 MB IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO BE NEAR 38N138W. 
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 
24N W OF 123W BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 13 FT IN 
NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS...THEN GALE FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 1800 UTC OSCAT PASS 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS 
GULF. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT 
EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON 
AND QUICKLY MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT 
MAY INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY 
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU. 

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AID 
OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO AROUND 9 FT. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PANAMA REACHING NEAR 06N. 
 
$$
GR