000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JAN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 08N89W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 04N105W TO 06N125W TO 07N134W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 118W AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. FARTHER WEST...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST- CENTRAL WATERS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 140W. DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 18N E OF 130W. THE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE FIRST AREA IS FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 128W...AND THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOUR AS A VERY STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 08N W OF 128W BY SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...A HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO BE NEAR 38N138W. GAP WINDS... WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SO FAR...NWP MODELS SHOW WINDS INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 30 KT EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON AND QUICKLY MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS ALSO ENHANCING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO AROUND 9 FT. $$ GR