000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 08N89W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 04N99W TO 04N111W 
TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 124W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS LOCATED 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGHING FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY 
OF 24N113W AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 
18N120W. OVERALL...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W 
OF 112W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND STABLE 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS N OF 18N WITHIN THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A RIDGE AXIS LIES TO 
THE WEST ALONG 134W. THE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ALONG 
WITH A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 29N132W 
IS SUPPORTING A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N132W. THIS SURFACE 
HIGH RESULTS IN TWO AREAS WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
GENERATING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND SEAS MAXIMIZING AT 
10 FT. THE FIRST AREA IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 25N AS A 
RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 131W...WITH THIS AREA FORECAST TO SHRINK 
IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY TO N OF 28N BETWEEN 116W AND 
123W. THE OTHER AREA OF NOTE IS AN AREA OF NE TO E TRADES ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 25N GENERALLY W OF 
122W. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WESTWARD AND 
STRETCH TO THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF 30N BY EARLY SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND A WEAKER RIDGE 
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO ARE FORCING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
WHERE AN EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED N TO NE WINDS 
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
SATURDAY...BEFORE PULSING UPWARDS AGAIN BRIEFLY EARLY SUNDAY. A 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CHIVELA 
PASS REGION EARLY TUESDAY MAY INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES ACROSS 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS ALSO ENHANCING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AID 
OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO AROUND 8 FT.
 
$$
HUFFMAN