000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JAN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO 06N78W TO 08.5N87W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 04N97W TO 06.5N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING SE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 19N122W...AND A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO THE S OF THIS ALONG ABOUT 113W MOVING E. SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE S HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS LIKELY TRIGGERING ELEVATED CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES DE MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE AND INLAND ACROSS THE N HALF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INDUCING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. BROAD RIDGING PERSISTS TO THE E OF THESE TROUGHS...PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT E OF 110W. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NE PACIFIC W OF 120W...WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N132W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 17N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES IS PROMOTING MODERATE NNW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING OUT 120 NM...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 4 TO 6 FT S OF PUNTA EUGENIA...AND 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE N. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS THAT EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 11 FT. THE HIGH WILL SINK SE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE S OF THE HIGH...FRESH NE TRADES 20-25 KT PREVAIL FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 10 FT. LOOK FOR THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES TO SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN EXPAND NW ACROSS W PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS FORCED FURTHER SE BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE W OF 120W...PULSES OF NW SWELL FROM THE NE AND CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS AND MAINTAIN SEAS 7-9 FT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND A WEAKER ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FORCING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED WINDS 20- 25 KT N OF 14.5N. WINDS HERE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LESS THAN 20 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE PULSING AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO 20-30 KT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MAY INDUCE NORTHERLY GALES ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS ALSO ENHANCING THE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM 8 TO AROUND 9 FT. $$ STRIPLING