000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 04N92W. ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 04N92W TO 05N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 
THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY LATE FRI. NORTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RECENT 
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR AND WILL COMBINE 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CURRENTLY SPREADING SE ACROSS MOST OF 
THE REGION W OF 110W BY FRI. AN AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IS NOW 
AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. THE 
SWELLS WILL TRANSLATE WESTWARD AND SHRINK TO AN AREA FROM 05N TO 
10N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W FRI MORNING. BY LATE FRI...SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION 
E OF 110W. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N134W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 10 
FT. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE AND SLIGHTLY 
WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE AERIAL EXTENT AND 
STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF 8-9 FT 
SEAS...PARTICULARLY N 07N W OF 125W THROUGH LATE SAT. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WAS 
ENHANCING THE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM 
TO AROUND 9 FT.
 
$$
GR