000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091010 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION..AMENDED                             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC THU JAN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1000 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...A 0636 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS JUST 
CONFIRMED THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES WITH 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT NOTED IN THIS PASS WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W. FURTHER NORTH...AN 
EARLIER 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS HAVE VEERED TO 
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO...A STRONG SIGNAL THAT GALE FORCE GAP WINDS WILL SOON 
ABATE ALTOGETHER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NWP MODELS ARE 
FORECASTING WINDS TO BE 20 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO 
FRI. THE RECENT STORM FORCE EVENT HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF 
NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST 
WITH AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN AN AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
13N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W. THE SWELLS WILL TRANSLATE WESTWARD AND 
SHRINK TO AN AREA FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 118W BY 
OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI. BY LATE FRI...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 
LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 05N90W TO 
03N97W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N97W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 
136W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N137W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 130W...AND FROM 08N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE BUILDING OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF THE ITCZ AND 
W OF 125W BY FRI. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA PER A 0252 UTC ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN 
THE EASTERN GULF WAS ENHANCING THE GAP FLOW THROUGH THESE GULFS. 
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 9 
FT...MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.
 
$$
COBB