000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC THU JAN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N84W TO 05N90W TO 
03N96W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 03N96W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...UNFORTUNATELY THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THIS GULF SINCE THIS MORNING TO 
VERIFY IF WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. 
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL 
DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION...THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM 
REGIONAL MODEL BOTH SUGGEST NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KT AT 9/0000 
UTC. SO THE DECISION WAS MADE TO DROP THE GALE WARNING FOR THE 
NEXT PACKAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KT WITH 
THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS BY THU NIGHT. THE RECENT STORM 
FORCE EVENT HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL 
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL 
RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 115W BY LATE THU...WITH 
SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. BY 48 HOURS...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER 8 
FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 110W.  

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N136W  
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO 21N W OF 130W...AND FROM 08N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE BUILDING OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES...COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF THE 
ITCZ AND W OF 125W BY FRI. 

GAP WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND FONSECA THIS WED. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS AND 
GULF OF MEXICO WAS ENHANCING THE GAP FLOW THROUGH THESE GULFS. 
BASED ON MARINE GUIDANCE...EXPECT PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD 
DOWNSTREAM TO 9 FT...MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
 
$$
GR