000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC WED JAN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. WINDS HAVE VEERED 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...TO 20 TO 
30 KT OVERNIGHT WED...THEN 20 KT OR LESS BY THU NIGHT. THE STORM 
FORCE EVENT HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL  
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL 
RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS 
00N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 115W BY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS 
OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. BY 48 HOURS...A PATCH OF RESIDUAL SWELLS SHOULD 
MIGRATE WESTWARD TO AN AREA FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND 
115W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 09N84W TO 05N90W TO 03N99W. 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N99W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N134W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 130W...AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE AREA WHILE BUILDING OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES... 
COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W BY FRI. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF 
OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING A GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED 
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THESE GULFS. THE WINDS 
ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 9 
FT...MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.
 
$$
GR