000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JAN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAVE VEERED. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON...TO 20 
TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT WED...THEN 20 KT OR LESS BY THU NIGHT. THE 
STORM FORCE EVENT HAS PRODUCED A LARGE N TO NE SWELL WHICH IS 
SPREADING SW WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE AREA FROM 
04N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W. BY FRI MORNING...8 FT SEAS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL REACH FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 
105W AND 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 03N95W TO 05N99W WHERE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N119W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 120W AND ALSO W OF 128W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N134W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES W OF LINE 20N135W TO 13N120W TO 09N120W WITH SEAS TO 11 
FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
WHILE BUILDING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE 
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N 
OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. 
SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 9 FT...MERGING WITH NE SWELL 
EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
 
$$
AL