000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JAN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 0312 UTC ASCAT-A AND A SUBSEQUENT 0408 
UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 13N. 
THESE PASSES SUGGEST WINDS HAVE FALLEN JUST BELOW STORM FORCE IN 
THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY 
TODAY AND DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO 20 TO 
30 KT OVERNIGHT WED. THE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL  PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE 
TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W 
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E 
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. BY 48 HOURS A PATCH OF 
RESIDUAL SWELLS SHOULD MIGRATE WESTWARD TO AN AREA FROM 04N TO 
10N BETWEEN 105W AND 117W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N84W TO 05N99W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N99W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 
133W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF HAWAII NEAR 23N149W 
WITH A RELATED 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N148W. FARTHER TO THE 
NE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W IS SUPPORTING A 1026 MB 
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N135W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST S OF 
THE HIGH PRES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 125W BASED ON LATEST 
SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH...FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 
35N138W BY THIS EVENING...AND LOW PRES W OF AREA WILL BE ENOUGH 
TO SUPPORT INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL 
WATERS... PARTICULARLY N OF 09N AND W OF LINE FROM 21N140W TO 
15N130W TO 10N120W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN A 
MIX OF NW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE WIND WAVES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. 
SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 9 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH NE 
SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS 
THE SOUTHER PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT INCREASING 
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NE WATERS...MAINLY N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY LATE THU...AS HIGH PRES PRESENTLY 
LOCATED N OF AREA STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE E.  
 
$$
COBB